Saturday, August 11, 2007
Talking to Iraq's Neighbors
I
think it's a good time to make a preliminary assessment of the results
of reaching out and talking to Iraq's neighbors in reducing violence in
the country.
So, was it a bad suggestion to talk to them?
Not
completely bad, and not completely good either, pretty much like any
suggestion when the situation in question is as complex as Iraq's.
The
results with Iran have been so poor so far, in fact the Iranian
involvement in violence has increased as statistics tell us—the
American commanders here said that attacks on coalition forces by Shia
militias linked to Iran represented 75 percent of total attacks in
July.
Although it's still unclear whether this rise was a result
of more attacks by militias or of fewer attacks by other insurgents the
overall outcome is that for some reason dialogue either failed to
encourage a change in Iran's policy toward Iraq or even worse giving
opposite results.
On the other hand we have Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Jordan. Although Arabia was recently criticized by ambassador Khallilzad for not doing enough there are reasons to think that the three countries have to some extent contributed to the change in attitude among Sunni Arab tribes in Anbar; an effect that is slowly spreading to other regions around Baghdad, i.e. the Baghdad belts.
It is true that seeds for the awakening movement in Anbar were planted prior to the Iraq Study Group recommendations-perhaps some of you remember sheik Jad'aan and his fighters from last year-but it would be rather naïve to think that the movement gained all the sudden momentum we saw from a local initiative by some good sheiks.
In my opinion the Arab countries I mentioned have redirected much of the support they had been giving al-Qaeda and its allied tribes to the awakening sheiks and their fighters. And why wouldn't Arab countries do this!?
First Arab countries fear that Iran would control much of
Iraq and they have come to realize that the only way to prevent this
from happening is by allowing Iraq to become a stable state with which
they can build good relations. Second their relations with America are
already much better than Iran's which is seen as a common threat to
them and to Iraq's stability. Add this to recent pledges with military
aid in the billions and-I assume-guarantees that democracy in Iraq is
not going to be a threat to their interests and we have a good package
of incentives and disincentives.
This must have convinced them that
they will lose if they keep putting their money on the insurgency as a
way to stop the Iranian expansion.
This doesn't mean Saudi Arabia is
doing all they can. After all it's the ideology they teach in their
schools and mosques that keeps breeding terrorism and until they do
something about that Saudi Arabia will always be responsible for
creating new generations of terrorists who could strike in Iraq and
elsewhere.
Then there's Syria which I'm going to leave aside right now since apparently there has been no change in its attitude in either direction. And we still haven't heard enough about meetings between American and Syrian officials, that's if there were any. Speaking of that I think the public in Iraq and America deserve to know more about what happened during previous meetings with Iran and Arab countries—I don't know about the media in America but I know our media here is not telling us any reliable information in this respect.
The question is what can be done in order to make talking to Iran at least as fruitful as talking to the Arab countries?
I don’t have an answer for this one and it looks to me that making progress on both fronts through diplomatic means is very difficult. This is because on one hand we have a group of Arab regimes whose core concern is the preservation of their regimes and whenever possible to slow down political and social reforms in their countries for as long as possible or at least make reforms a less dramatic process. These are things that America can, more or less, reassure them about since the idea of spreading democracy in the region is an America project in the first place.
But on the other hand there is a revolutionary
regime whose ambitions go beyond preserving the regime to dominating
the Middle East to which the road passes through Baghdad and Basra.
Today Rafsanjani complained
that America was not sending "good signals" and I wonder what sort of
good signals could satisfy the Mullahs; removing sanctions, allowing
them to act as they please in Iraq, or maybe letting them continue
their nuclear project?
My conclusion is that a diplomatic
solution with Iran in the foreseeable future is very unlikely, unless
the Iranians change their regime from within.
Therefore the only way
I see to neutralizing Iran's interference would be to keep building the
Iraqi state until it's strong enough to deal with this interference and
meanwhile military operations should continue to eliminate Iran's
surrogates and secure the border. This will ultimately weaken the power
of their political wing as well.
Maybe this doesn’t look like a very good plan but it's better than a direct military confrontation with Iran and let's not forget that the change in power-balance on the ground could change the outcome of future negotiations, on the long run.
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