Fears of New Balkans Crisis as Kosovo Deadline Nears
By Patrick Goodenough
CNSNews.com International Editor
November 30, 2007
(CNSNews.com) - As a deadline fast approaches to finalize
negotiations on Kosovo's future status, leaders of the country's Muslim
ethnic Albanian majority have reiterated their intention to declare
independence next month despite Serbia's opposition, raising fears of a
fresh war in the fragile Balkans.
A number of European countries
also worry that independence for the province -- which remains legally
a part of Serbia but has been under U.N. administration since the end
of NATO's 1999 war against Belgrade -- will stoke secessionism in their
own regions.
Russia, a longstanding ally of Serbia, is opposed
to Kosovo's breakaway, while the United States supports a U.N.-mediated
plan for "supervised independence" that includes guarantees for
Kosovo's Orthodox Christian Serbs, who account for 10 percent of the
territory's two million people.
Russia earlier this year
rejected the plan, named for U.N. mediator Martti Ahtisaari, and
threatened to use its Security Council veto to block it.
In a
bid to break the deadlock, a "troika" of U.S., Russian and European
Union (E.U.) mediators has held six rounds of talks with Serbs and
Kosovar Albanians since August, and are due to give their final
recommendations to the Security Council on December 10.
Last-ditch
talks in Austria broke down this week, and Albanian leaders say they
will declare independence once the deadline expires.
Kosovo
President Fatmir Sejdiu said a declaration of independence would happen
"very quickly," a position also taken by prime minister-in-waiting
Hashim Thaci, whose party won Nov. 17 elections on a pro-independence
platform. The Serbian minority overwhelmingly boycotted the election.
But
Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica told mediators in Austria
that Belgrade would treat a unilateral declaration of independence as
"null, void and non-binding."
"Serbia will not let an inch of
its territory be taken away," he told reporters in the resort town of
Baden, where the inconclusive talks were held.
Kostunica has
offered Kosovo wide-ranging autonomy while remaining part of Serbia,
but the Albanians leaders reject anything short of independence.
Kosovo's
outgoing prime minister, Agim Ceku, in an article posted on the Kosova
News Agency Web site Friday, predicted that the coming declaration of
independence would win "prompt recognition by the international
community."
Ceku said an independent Kosovo was keen to
cooperate with Serbia on a range of issues, from cross-border freedom
of movement to the fight against organized crime. But he also warned
that any "aggressive" response by Serbia -- such as closing the border
or imposing sanctions -- "will be damaging not just for Kosovo but also
for Serbia and the region."
He again dismissed the notion that Kosovar Albanians would accept "any kind of confederation with Serbia."
Both
Ceku and his incoming successor, Thaci, are former members of the
Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), an often-controversial ethnic Albanian
guerrilla group that fought against the forces of what was then
Yugoslavia during the late 1990s.
The conflict, which cost some
10,000 lives, was brought to an end when NATO in 1999 launched an air
campaign against Belgrade, forcing Serbian forces to withdraw from the
province.
'Kosovo precedent'
Serbian officials
have warned that Western endorsement of Kosovo's independence would
turn most Serbs against the U.S. and Europe and towards Russia.
Serbia
also has threatened steps that would be disruptive in the region if
Kosovo declares independence, including encouraging a Serb enclave in
neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, called Republika Srpska, to seek
independence. That in turn would destabilize that formerly war-torn
country and jeopardize the 1995 Dayton peace accord.
But despite
the threats, many analysts doubt Serbia would follow through, in part
because it has aspirations to join the E.U. eventually, and polls show
that half the population wants E.U. membership.
Nonetheless, the possibility of a new crisis has set off alarm bells.
"There
could be a new crisis in the Balkans by Christmas," Britain's
Conservative Party leader David Cameron, in his first visit to
Washington as leader of his party, said in a speech Thursday.
He
called for concerted and decisive action, including preparing the NATO
force in Kosovo for possible trouble; sending a clear message to
Serbia's leaders about the costs of any disruptive reaction to
independence for Kosovo; and making it clear to Russia -- which was
"playing a less than helpful role" -- that it was expected to act
responsibly.
Although Cameron backed the Bush administration's
support for Kosovo's independence, within his own party there are
differences over the issue.
Charles Tannock, a Conservative
member of the European Parliament and a party spokesman on foreign
affairs, wrote last month that Western backing for a declaration of
independence "will incite instability and potentially even violence
elsewhere."
The "Kosovo precedent" could boost secessionists in
Spain and Cyprus, he said. Russia, meanwhile, might respond by
unilaterally recognizing Moldovia's breakaway territory of
Transdnistria; Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia; the
ethnic Russian-majority region of Crimea in Ukraine; and Azerbaijan's
separatist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh -- destabilizing those countries
and risking reigniting "frozen conflicts."
Most members of the
27-member E.U. are supportive of the Ahtisaari proposals, and are
expected to recognize an independent Kosovo, although Cyprus and Greece
are among those still reluctant.
The U.S. State Department
maintains that Kosovo is a unique situation, with a unique U.N.
mandate, and that its independence will not have an impact on other
conflicts in the region.
The department announced Thursday that
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will meet with NATO allies in
Brussels on December 7 -- three days before the Kosovo deadline -- and
that Kosovo would be on the agenda.
I MESSED THE TOP ONE UP THIS IS THE REAL VERSION...........I think Kosovo should stay independent and nothing should stop them, they didnt do anthing wrong they deserve to have that piece of land and live peacefully. They shouldn't let Serbia get in the way and they SHOULDN'T worry we AMERICANS got your back KOSOVO. You already got your independence and freedom so that means that Serbia is just making a fool of themselves to show-off...........SO DON'T WORRY KOSOVO... AMERICANS GOT YOUR BACK..........GOOD LUCK........:)
Posted by: Anesa | February 22, 2008 at 12:31 PM
I think Kosovo should stay independent and nothing should stop them, they didnt do nothing wrong they deserve to have that piece of land and live peacefully. They should let Serbia get in the way and they SHOULDN'T worry we AMERICANS got your back KOSOVO. You already got your independence and freedom so that means that Serbia is just making a fool of themselves to show-off...........SO DON'T WORRY KOSOVO AMERICANS GOT YOUR BACK..........GOOD LUCK........:)
Posted by: Anesa | February 22, 2008 at 12:26 PM