How's the war going? - Kosovo

Fears of New Balkans Crisis as Kosovo Deadline Nears
By Patrick Goodenough
CNSNews.com International Editor
November 30, 2007

(CNSNews.com) - As a deadline fast approaches to finalize negotiations on Kosovo's future status, leaders of the country's Muslim ethnic Albanian majority have reiterated their intention to declare independence next month despite Serbia's opposition, raising fears of a fresh war in the fragile Balkans.

A number of European countries also worry that independence for the province -- which remains legally a part of Serbia but has been under U.N. administration since the end of NATO's 1999 war against Belgrade -- will stoke secessionism in their own regions.

Russia, a longstanding ally of Serbia, is opposed to Kosovo's breakaway, while the United States supports a U.N.-mediated plan for "supervised independence" that includes guarantees for Kosovo's Orthodox Christian Serbs, who account for 10 percent of the territory's two million people.

Russia earlier this year rejected the plan, named for U.N. mediator Martti Ahtisaari, and threatened to use its Security Council veto to block it.

In a bid to break the deadlock, a "troika" of U.S., Russian and European Union (E.U.) mediators has held six rounds of talks with Serbs and Kosovar Albanians since August, and are due to give their final recommendations to the Security Council on December 10.

Last-ditch talks in Austria broke down this week, and Albanian leaders say they will declare independence once the deadline expires.

Kosovo President Fatmir Sejdiu said a declaration of independence would happen "very quickly," a position also taken by prime minister-in-waiting Hashim Thaci, whose party won Nov. 17 elections on a pro-independence platform. The Serbian minority overwhelmingly boycotted the election.

But Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica told mediators in Austria that Belgrade would treat a unilateral declaration of independence as "null, void and non-binding."

"Serbia will not let an inch of its territory be taken away," he told reporters in the resort town of Baden, where the inconclusive talks were held.

Kostunica has offered Kosovo wide-ranging autonomy while remaining part of Serbia, but the Albanians leaders reject anything short of independence.

Kosovo's outgoing prime minister, Agim Ceku, in an article posted on the Kosova News Agency Web site Friday, predicted that the coming declaration of independence would win "prompt recognition by the international community."

Ceku said an independent Kosovo was keen to cooperate with Serbia on a range of issues, from cross-border freedom of movement to the fight against organized crime. But he also warned that any "aggressive" response by Serbia -- such as closing the border or imposing sanctions -- "will be damaging not just for Kosovo but also for Serbia and the region."

He again dismissed the notion that Kosovar Albanians would accept "any kind of confederation with Serbia."

Both Ceku and his incoming successor, Thaci, are former members of the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), an often-controversial ethnic Albanian guerrilla group that fought against the forces of what was then Yugoslavia during the late 1990s.

The conflict, which cost some 10,000 lives, was brought to an end when NATO in 1999 launched an air campaign against Belgrade, forcing Serbian forces to withdraw from the province.

'Kosovo precedent'

Serbian officials have warned that Western endorsement of Kosovo's independence would turn most Serbs against the U.S. and Europe and towards Russia.

Serbia also has threatened steps that would be disruptive in the region if Kosovo declares independence, including encouraging a Serb enclave in neighboring Bosnia and Herzegovina, called Republika Srpska, to seek independence. That in turn would destabilize that formerly war-torn country and jeopardize the 1995 Dayton peace accord.

But despite the threats, many analysts doubt Serbia would follow through, in part because it has aspirations to join the E.U. eventually, and polls show that half the population wants E.U. membership.

Nonetheless, the possibility of a new crisis has set off alarm bells.

"There could be a new crisis in the Balkans by Christmas," Britain's Conservative Party leader David Cameron, in his first visit to Washington as leader of his party, said in a speech Thursday.

He called for concerted and decisive action, including preparing the NATO force in Kosovo for possible trouble; sending a clear message to Serbia's leaders about the costs of any disruptive reaction to independence for Kosovo; and making it clear to Russia -- which was "playing a less than helpful role" -- that it was expected to act responsibly.

Although Cameron backed the Bush administration's support for Kosovo's independence, within his own party there are differences over the issue.

Charles Tannock, a Conservative member of the European Parliament and a party spokesman on foreign affairs, wrote last month that Western backing for a declaration of independence "will incite instability and potentially even violence elsewhere."

The "Kosovo precedent" could boost secessionists in Spain and Cyprus, he said. Russia, meanwhile, might respond by unilaterally recognizing Moldovia's breakaway territory of Transdnistria; Georgia's Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia; the ethnic Russian-majority region of Crimea in Ukraine; and Azerbaijan's separatist enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh -- destabilizing those countries and risking reigniting "frozen conflicts."

Most members of the 27-member E.U. are supportive of the Ahtisaari proposals, and are expected to recognize an independent Kosovo, although Cyprus and Greece are among those still reluctant.

The U.S. State Department maintains that Kosovo is a unique situation, with a unique U.N. mandate, and that its independence will not have an impact on other conflicts in the region.

The department announced Thursday that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice will meet with NATO allies in Brussels on December 7 -- three days before the Kosovo deadline -- and that Kosovo would be on the agenda.

Comments

[Anesa]

I MESSED THE TOP ONE UP THIS IS THE REAL VERSION...........I think Kosovo should stay independent and nothing should stop them, they didnt do anthing wrong they deserve to have that piece of land and live peacefully. They shouldn't let Serbia get in the way and they SHOULDN'T worry we AMERICANS got your back KOSOVO. You already got your independence and freedom so that means that Serbia is just making a fool of themselves to show-off...........SO DON'T WORRY KOSOVO... AMERICANS GOT YOUR BACK..........GOOD LUCK........:)

[Anesa]

I think Kosovo should stay independent and nothing should stop them, they didnt do nothing wrong they deserve to have that piece of land and live peacefully. They should let Serbia get in the way and they SHOULDN'T worry we AMERICANS got your back KOSOVO. You already got your independence and freedom so that means that Serbia is just making a fool of themselves to show-off...........SO DON'T WORRY KOSOVO AMERICANS GOT YOUR BACK..........GOOD LUCK........:)