Looming Entitlement Tsunami Threatens America's Health Care Freedom Every day millions
of Americans reap the benefits of having the best health system in the
world. We have the most skilled specialists, doctors, nurses, and
medical technicians available to us, usually within a short distance.
Americans are living longer, healthier lives as a result of the
sophisticated, patient-focused, competition-based health system that
has emerged in our country since the advent of medical science and
technology. Yet with all of its success, there are clear threats to the
system’s long term financial sustainability and the health care freedom
Americans enjoy. The federal government faces a tsunami of debt and
deficit caused by the explosion of promised benefits that—if left
unchecked—will swallow up all other government spending. The time for
dealing with these threats is upon us. The solutions need to start now.
The Medicare ‘Entitlement’
Entitlement programs, usually established by Washington policy
makers with noble intentions, are programs literally on auto-pilot.
Like all entitlement programs, Medicare spending automatically
increases by significant amounts every year. The yearly increases for
Medicare have been skyrocketing for many years, averaging 8 percent
every year from 2000 to 2005, well ahead of the pace of overall
economic growth.
Medicare spending has doubled since the mid-1990s and is
expected to continue growing at about 8 percent every year for the next
decade. According to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO),
by 2017, Medicare spending is projected to more than double to $853
billion. As a share of the total economy, Medicare expenditures
currently stand at 3 percent, growing to 6.5 percent by 2030. As a
comparison, we will spend 4 percent of the economy this year on
national defense.
These shocking rates of increase for Medicare spending would be
of little consequence if money grew on trees. But absent any
commonsense reforms by Congress and combined with the imminent
explosion of Social Security entitlements, these increases are simply
unsustainable. They constitute a gathering fiscal tsunami for America’s
taxpayers. Three simple and unavoidable demographic realities are
certain to push Medicare to the breaking point.
Disturbing Trends
The first of these realities is the retirement of the Baby Boom
generation beginning next year, as the first Boomers born in 1946 start
collecting early, partial Social Security checks. The trend accelerates
in January 2011 as the ’46 Boomers retire at age 65 and become eligible
for full Social Security and Medicare benefits. Put simply: the
population moving into Medicare is set to explode in less than four
years.
The second reality is the dramatic narrowing of the ratio of
workers to retirees. According to estimates, there are roughly 3.5
workers today for every retiree. By 2020, the ratio will narrow to
about 2.5 workers, and by 2040 there will be 2 workers for every
retiree. To give some perspective on this: in 1945, the ratio was
40-to-1. By the 1960s, the ratio had slipped to 5-to-1.
The third reality is the rise in American life expectancy. On
September 12, the Center for Disease Control and Prevention reported
that life expectancy in the United States has reached 78 years, the
highest ever. In the 1950s, life expectancy in the U.S. was less than
70 years. The typical American citizen now lives nearly a decade longer
than the typical American citizen a half-century ago. This is good
news, of course—but it also puts upward pressure on entitlement
programs that have been put on autopilot by Congress.
There is another factor that has to be taken into account, and
that is the on-going surge of health care costs in the United States.
Unlike the three demographic changes, this trend is not inevitable.
Maintaining the best health care system in the world can’t be done on
the cheap, but there are many factors within our control as a society
that drive up costs or infringe on health care freedom. Two examples
are over-regulation and predatory litigation, which are tremendous cost
drivers in health care.
The cumulative impact of all these trends on the current health
system is clear and dramatic. It means an ever-increasing number of
longer-living retirees moving into a Medicare program financed,
proportionately, by a shrinking number of working Americans. Put
succinctly, it means Medicare is locked on a collision course with
massive, certain, catastrophic bankruptcy.
The impact of a Medicare bankruptcy will have an enormous
impact on the personal lives of virtually every American, from the
young and healthy to the aged and needy. If policy makers in Congress
do not begin to alter Medicare’s path now, Washington will eventually
be forced to decide between three punishing options: dramatic tax
increases on all Americans, including working families; dramatic cuts
in non-entitlement spending, eliminating programs Americans regard as
vital, like defense or education; or, a combination of both.
A colleague of mine, Congressman Paul Ryan of Wisconsin,
recently warned on the House floor: “We have a system today where all
the fiscal experts in Washington and across America from the left and
the right are telling us health care’s unsustainable; the entitlements
in this country are bankrupting America; that our children and
grandchildren simply won’t be able to pay for the government of
tomorrow because of the cost of health care today and the trajectory
it’s on.”
Trustees Pull Medicare ‘Trigger’
The 2007 Social Security and Medicare Trustees report, issued
the past April, underscores the perilous condition of Medicare’s
finances. “Social Security and Medicare both present daunting fiscal
challenges,” the Trustees say, adding “their fiscal problems are driven
by inexorable demographic change and, in the case of Medicare,
relentless increases in health care costs, and are not likely to be
greatly ameliorated by economic growth or mere tinkering with program
financing.”
Medicare’s financial position is so severe is that the Trustees
this year issued the first ever “Medicare funding warning.” The
“trigger” for this warning is that, within the next seven years, the
Trustees estimate that more than 45 percent of Medicare’s funding will
come from the government’s general revenues as opposed to premiums and
fees.
Retired Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan is also among
those who have recently warned of the need to do something about
Medicare’s ongoing march toward fiscal disaster. In a September 17
interview with Fortune Magazine, Greenspan said the most urgent
economic problem facing America is addressing Medicare. “[W]hat’s at
stake here is the fiscal stability of the American government…the
problem is that the arithmetic is inexorable,” Greenspan said, adding
“it’s unethical and immoral for a government, when confronted with
these types of events, not to take action. What do we elect people
for?”
Commonsense Reforms
Greenspan is correct. Action must begin today to avert a
catastrophic collision between Medicare and bankruptcy tomorrow.
Today’s elected leaders have a moral obligation to current and future
generations of Americans to begin to confront the challenge.
As the senior Republican on the House Budget Committee,
Congressman Ryan crafted an alternative budget for Fiscal Year 2008
that balances by 2012, addresses the runaway growth of entitlement
spending, demands accountability in other government spending, and
helps maintain a strong economy. Unfortunately the Ryan plan was
ignored by the majority in Congress in favor of a budget that does
nothing to acknowledge the increasingly dire condition of Medicare’s
finances.
Some positive steps have been taken by Congress in recent
years, however, that may present a foundation for future progress. In
2003, a Republican-led Congress passed the Medicare Modernization Act
(MMA) to start the process of addressing Medicare’s troubling trends by
emphasizing prevention and personal choice and utilizing the health
care market place. The MMA created a prescription drug plan designed to
lower out of pocket costs for Medicare beneficiaries and ease financial
pressures on the parts of Medicare supporting hospitals and doctors.
The reforms implemented in 2003 recognized an important fact: in the
long run, investing in the technological advancements of modern
medicine to keep beneficiaries healthy saves money and resources that
would have been used when a beneficiary becomes ill. It’s more
efficient to support preventative drugs than long hospital stays. While
criticized for its high cost projections at the time, the program is
now expected to cost significantly less than originally estimated by
Washington’s static-minded budget forecasters who rarely take into
account the positive impact of markets when making their calculations.
Last year, the premium for the drug plan, originally expected
to average $37 a month, averaged only $24 per month. The reason?
Competition and freedom. Seniors can chose from a variety of drug plans
to meet their specific health care needs. The declining costs were
recently noted in the annual Medicare Trustees report.
The other reform passed in 2003 was Medicare Advantage, private
health plans which provide greater flexibility and choice—beyond
traditional Medicare—for things like specialized care and preventative
medicines. Medicare Advantage now has 8.3 million beneficiaries
enrolled, the majority of which are urban poor seniors, rural seniors,
and minorities. One of the most notable achievements of Medicare
Advantage is its success in coordinating care for seniors with chronic
illnesses like diabetes, which is a huge driver of Medicare’s cost.
Regrettably, instead of being emulated, these effective reforms
have been under attack in Congress this year. The House, in fact,
targeted Medicare Advantage at one point with $157 billion in cuts that
would have left 3 million seniors without coverage. Fortunately that
plan has at least temporarily been abandoned.
Republicans recognize more government control will do nothing
to head off the financial tsunami that looms on the horizon for the
entire health system. Rather, solutions must be found that emphasize
individual choice, competition, greater access and flexibility—a more
patient-centered health care system, rather than a one-size-fits-all
government program. We believe reforms should put each American at the
center of his or her health care decisions, maximizing personal freedom
and control and keeping the heavy hand of government intervention to a
minimum.
As Congressman Ryan puts it:
“Do you trust Washington with your money to make personal
decisions for you or do you trust individuals to make them for
themselves? I would argue, and I think the evidence is clear, that when
individuals make the decisions for themselves, when they’re spending
their own money, when they’re talking to their doctor and making
decisions on their own treatments, with affordable insurance, that the
system’s going to be far better, people are going to be much more
satisfied, and we’re going to save a lot more money and we'll have
healthier outcomes.”
In their report, the Medicare Trustees concluded with this
lucid piece of advice: “Prudence dictates action sooner rather than
later to address these fiscal challenges.”
Let’s hope decision makers in Congress start listening soon.
For Medicare and future generations of Americans, the work must begin
today.
By John Boehner
Thursday, October 4, 2007
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